Hamilton County’s Labor Market in 2025: Reading the Signals in a Shifting Economy
By Mike Thibideau, President & CEO of Invest Hamilton County
I’ve analyzed Hamilton County’s 2025 labor market because, to put it politely, it felt like a really long year for those of us who nerd out on the economy and the labor market. Uncertainty stayed at the center of most conversations, but overall things went okay. I took some time to dig into year-end data to see how those national trends made their way into our market…examining what we do well, where we’re vulnerable, and how we’re responding to broader economic forces.
Hamilton County posted 2.9% unemployment—lowest in Indiana, below Indianapolis MSA’s 3.3% and the state’s 3.5%. We added 5,422 jobs (3% growth), outpacing Indianapolis MSA (2%) and Indiana (1%). Job postings jumped 5.9% to 48,259. But here’s the tension: median advertised salary dropped 4%, from $52,100 to $50,000. We’re growing volume while compressing wages—a dangerous combination in a county where cost of living runs 8% above the MSA and 12% above the state.
The national JOLTS data tells the real story: job openings per unemployed worker fell from 2.0 to 1.2. Workers have less leverage everywhere, but Hamilton County felt it harder because our white-collar, service-oriented economy is sensitive to discretionary spending slowdowns. We don’t have the large-scale manufacturing or distribution facilities that insulated our neighbors when professional services tightened their belts.
This matters because national trends hit our sectors differently:
- Computer Systems Design; our signature strength at 4,877 jobs growing to 5,103 ($145,408 per worker)…benefited from continued enterprise digitalization even as consumer tech cooled.
- Management Consulting (3,475 to 3,646 jobs) and Portfolio Management (1,593 to 1,750 jobs, 10% growth) thrived as companies prioritized efficiency and wealthy households sought wealth preservation in uncertain times.
But Insurance Agencies, while growing 6% to 4,494 jobs, faced margin compression from rising catastrophic claims nationally. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate represents 11.1% of our employment versus 5.0% nationally…we’re overweight in a sector experiencing structural pressure from climate risk repricing and regulatory tightening.
Meanwhile, our largest employer…Restaurants and Other Eating Places (15,570 to 16,038 jobs) …tracked national trends where discretionary dining softened but employment stayed resilient as operators struggled to maintain service levels. The problem? These jobs generated just $27,686 in revenue per worker they employ.
Hamilton County ranks 1,153 out of 3,143 counties with 63.3% industry diversity—strong positioning that signals stability. But composition matters. We’re underweight in Healthcare (3.9% versus 5.0% nationally) in a sector that added jobs nationally even as others contracted. We have virtually no Higher Education presence (0.0% versus 3.1% nationally), missing the institutional anchor driving research commercialization and talent retention in competitive metros.
Here’s the credentialing problem that keeps me up at night: 52% of our postings required no education, 27% wanted high school diplomas, and just 22% required bachelor’s degrees. Yet 62% of our residents hold bachelor’s degrees while only 31% of our jobs require them. We’re creating a talent export economy—training workers who leave for Nashville, Austin, or downtown Indianapolis where the job mix matches their credentials.
Indianapolis MSA benefited from what we lack: manufacturing and logistics expansion in Boone, Hendricks, and Morgan counties. These capital-intensive industries weathered professional services contraction better because they’re tied to goods movement rather than discretionary corporate spending. When consulting budgets tightened nationally, our Knowledge-Intensive Business Services (8.6% of employment versus 6.1% nationally) felt immediate pressure. When companies delayed capital projects, our neighbors’ manufacturing facilities kept running.
The Federal Reserve’s successful soft landing normalized national job openings from 12 million in 2022 to 8.1 million in 2025, with quits rates falling to 2.0%. This worker leverage compression hit our professional services harder than regional manufacturing because high-wage knowledge workers had been job-hopping aggressively during the pandemic boom. When that stopped, our wage premium eroded faster than sectors where wages had remained stable.
Hamilton County in 2025 was healthy but increasingly fragile—strong absolute performance masking compositional weakness. Our challenge isn’t filling jobs (we’re doing that). It’s ensuring our economic base can support our cost structure and retain the human capital we’re developing. We need healthcare capacity expansion to capture the one sector adding jobs nationally regardless of economic conditions. We need higher education partnerships to anchor research commercialization.
The good news is that our Gross Regional Product continues to increase, and employment and population growth are seeing gains. Anchored by a strong residential tax base, and high household income, the future of Hamilton County remains bright. But if other communities begin to catch up, quality of life may erode slowly. Just one more reason to be grateful this community continues to row forward together.